World tourism could lose more than 1,200 billion US dollars or 1.5 percent of global GDP after almost four months of disruption due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and among the 15 countries whose GDP could suffer the most due to tourism losses, is Croatia, in fact Croatia is third on the list, according to a new report by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
In the new report on the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on tourism, published this week, the UNCTAD also estimates losses in three 'scenarios' given the length of tourism disruptions - four, eight and 12 months.
"If the disruption of international tourism continues for eight months, the global loss in that sector could rise to 2,200 billion dollars, which is about 2.8 percent of global GDP, while in the most pessimistic scenario, if the interruption lasts 12 months, the losses could exceed $ 3.3 trillion, or 4.2 percent of GDP,” UNCTAD estimates.
They recall the great importance of the share of the travel and tourism sector in global GDP, as well as that tourism is the backbone of the economies of many countries and the 'life' of millions of people in the world.
"Covid19 has halted long-standing positive trends in world tourism, causing serious economic consequences around the world. Although tourism is slowly restarting in a growing number of countries, it is still stagnant in many, and for many, such as small islands and developing countries, a collapse in tourism also means a collapse in their development prospects,” Pamela Coke-Hamilton, UNCTAD’s director of international trade, warned in a report.
Analysing the impacts of tourism losses on its share of national GDP, UNCTAD estimates that Jamaica and Thailand could suffer the largest loss of tourism’s share of GDP, at 11 and 9 percent, respectively. In Croatia, that loss, according to their, as they say, moderate estimates, could be 8 percent, followed by Portugal with a loss of 6 percent, and the Dominican Republic with a loss of 5 percent.
Among the 15 most affected countries are Kenya, Morocco, Greece, Mauritius, Senegal, Ireland, Egypt, South Africa, Malaysia and Spain, and UNCTAD warns that the tourism sector will also feel pressure in many rich countries. They mention, they say, popular European and North American destinations, including France, Italy and the United States, which are also forecast to lose billions of dollars due to the dramatic decline in international tourism.