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Boris Vujcic Boris Vujcic Flickr

Government predicts 9.4 percent drop in GDP ? Croatian Bank governor states this could be doubled

Written by  May 04, 2020

There can be no doubt that the Croatian economy is being hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, like almost all economies around the world, and the government have recently announced that GDP is predicted to fall by 9.4 percent this year, meaning a 24 billion Kuna hole in the budget.

And speaking to Nova TV the governor of the Croatian National Bank, Boris Vujcic, seemed to agree with the government’s economic forecast. "It's a realistic scenario at this point, unless there is a second wave of COVID-19 lockdown.”

He added that in the case of the second lockdown, we can expect a doubling of these figures. A second wave of COVID-19 has been forecast for the autumn months, so a further hit to the Croatian economy could well be coming.

"Our situation will be better than it is in the European Union and the Eurozone. This is our estimate, we will be around zero, while in these countries there was a significant drop already in the first quarter,” said Vujcic when asked about the estimates for the first quarter of this year. Adding “We created Kuna liquidity, banks have enough money to lend to all sectors."

However, the governor wasn’t so upbeat when it came to tourism and real estate. In terms of tourism the Croatian National bank projects anywhere from a 50 percent drop in income to a 90 percent drop, depending on which scenario plays out this summer and what is the COVID-19 situation across Europe. Needless to say a 90 percent drop, which is the bank’s worst case scenario, would cripple the tourism industry and leave many business bankrupt and workers on the unemployment register. This very industry directly contributes to around 20 percent of the overall Croatian GDP. And in many towns and cities along the Adriatic this percentage is much higher, meaning these cities would need financial help.

 

The Voice of Dubrovnik

THE VOICE OF DUBROVNIK


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