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Croatia Sees Hopeful Population Growth Amid Positive Migration Trends Canva

Croatia Sees Hopeful Population Growth Amid Positive Migration Trends

Written by  Jul 22, 2024

The demographic problems of Croatia over the last few decades are twofold. The birth rate is simultaneously declining, and there is massive emigration, which has led to a disastrous situation where, between the two censuses of 2011 and 2021, Croatia lost 400,000 inhabitants. This is one of the worst demographic catastrophes in Europe and the world, reports Index.hr

However, the latest data from the EU statistical agency Eurostat provides hope that at least part of the bleak demographic picture has been reversed. In 2023, there was a population increase in Croatia of 11,079 residents, which roughly corresponds to the population of Knin and its surroundings.

This is primarily the result of a positive migration balance, meaning that more people immigrated to Croatia than emigrated from it that year. There were 30,000 more immigrants than emigrants, continuing the positive trend that began in 2022, when also more people immigrated to Croatia than emigrated.

For the first time since 2009, more people are immigrating to Croatia than emigrating from it. The years 2022 and 2023 are the first years since 2009 that more people have immigrated to Croatia than emigrated. Although Croatia has been an emigration country for most of its history, between 2001 and 2009, more people actually immigrated than emigrated each year, primarily due to a wave of immigration from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Looking at the 21st century as a whole, waves of emigration from and immigration to Croatia correlate well with periods of economic growth and decline. The worst net migration balance (more emigrants than immigrants) was from 2010 to 2017 when the economy was declining, wages were stagnant, and public debt was rising.

In contrast, during the period of positive migration balance (more immigrants than emigrants) in the first decade of this century, GDP was growing strongly, public debt was relatively low, and wages were increasing. Since the end of the pandemic, Croatia has recorded one of the highest economic growth rates in the EU. Since 2021, GDP growth has been among the highest in the EU, as well as real wage growth (adjusted for inflation) and consumption.

Not so long ago, in 2015, Croatia was at only 63 percent of the EU average in terms of actual individual consumption, and last year it was at 78 percent. Data on the two years of higher immigration to Croatia than emigration from it, 2022 and 2023, give hope that, due to approaching the average EU standard of living, Croatia has become attractive for immigration and possibly even for the return of those who emigrated in previous years.

The Voice of Dubrovnik

THE VOICE OF DUBROVNIK


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